by Michael Gilliland (Author)
Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting
Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance.
- Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting
- Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast
- Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices
- Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face
- Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process
Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.
Front Jacket
The Business Forecasting Deal
Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions
Business forecasting is the ultimate no-win game. You're almost always wrong--except on those rare, random occasions where actual sales come in exactly on forecast--and you get beat up routinely for your "lousy forecasts." Against this framework, The Business Forecasting Deal turns forecasting on its head. Instead of focusing solely on statistical modeling and forecast accuracy--accuracy being largely determined by the nature of the demand you are trying to forecast--Michael Gilliland turns your attention to forecasting process efficiency and effectiveness. His unique perspective, utilizing the emerging method of Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis, shows how organizations can meaningfully improve their performance by eliminating the "worst practices" that now sabotage and confound their forecasting efforts.
While predicting the future is a very difficult thing, there is no shortage of articles, books, consultants, and even software vendors willing to tell you (or sell you) their version of forecasting best practices. However, many of these purported "best practices" do not work--they fail to make the forecast any better. Through FVA analysis--a method that has been employed at several major corporations including Intel, AstraZeneca, Cisco, and Yokohama Tire (Canada)--The Business Forecasting Deal shows how to identify the waste and inefficiencies in the typical forecasting process. By eliminating those (surprisingly common) practices that make the forecast worse, FVA analysis is helping companies get better forecasts with less effort and less cost.
Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to a wide variety of business forecasting problems. It illustrates a new way to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, all within the internal political arena in which real-life forecasting is conducted. While there is no magic formula to guarantee perfect forecasts, this book will change your perspective--and improve your success--in dealing with the problems of business forecasting.
Back Jacket
THE BUSINESS FORECASTING DEAL
Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions
Business forecasting is the ultimate no-win game. You're almost always wrong--except on those rare, random occasions where actual sales come in exactly on forecast--and you get beat up routinely for your "lousy forecasts." Against this framework, The Business Forecasting Deal turns forecasting on its head. Instead of focusing solely on statistical modeling and forecast accuracy--accuracy being largely determined by the nature of the demand you are trying to forecast--Michael Gilliland turns your attention to forecasting process efficiency and effectiveness. His unique perspective, utilizing the emerging method of Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis, shows how organizations can meaningfully improve their performance by eliminating the "worst practices" that now sabotage and confound their forecasting efforts.
While predicting the future is a very difficult thing, there is no shortage of articles, books, consultants, and even software vendors willing to tell you (or sell you) their version of forecasting best practices. However, many of these purported "best practices" do not work--they fail to make the forecast any better. Through FVA analysis--a method that has been employed at several major corporations including Intel, AstraZeneca, Cisco, and Yokohama Tire (Canada)--The Business Forecasting Deal shows how to identify the waste and inefficiencies in the typical forecasting process. By eliminating those (surprisingly common) practices that make the forecast worse, FVA analysis is helping companies get better forecasts with less effort and less cost.
Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to a wide variety of business forecasting problems. It illustrates a new way to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, all within the internal political arena in which real-life forecasting is conducted. While there is no magic formula to guarantee perfect forecasts, this book will change your perspective--and improve your success--in dealing with the problems of business forecasting.
Author Biography
MICHAEL GILLILAND is Product Marketing Manager at SAS Institute and has worked in consu-mer products forecasting for more than twenty years. Prior to joining SAS in 2004, Mike held forecasting management positions in the food, electronics, and apparel industries and served as a consultant. He is a frequent speaker at industry events, has published articles in Supply Chain Management Review, Journal of Business Forecasting, Foresight, and APICS magazine, and was a columnist on "Worst Practices in Business Forecasting" for Supply Chain Forecasting Digest. Mike holds a BA in philosophy from Michigan State University, and master's degrees in philosophy and mathematical sciences from Johns Hopkins University. Follow his blog, The Business Forecasting Deal, at blogs.sas.com/forecasting.